The recent outbreaks reveal serious problems in our elimination strategy

The surge in cases due to spread between residents of Colombo under curfew should not surprise the health authorities – it was entirely predictable. For several weeks, we have failed to take adequate action to build on our initial success, in particular to expand testing. Whilst we remain in a select group of countries with minimal community transmission, we are increasingly dropping behind in our response. This is making it more difficult to lift the lockdowns, it will continue to frustrate the government’s economic and political goals of restarting the economy and holding elections, and it is putting to waste the enormous sacrifices that the public have made during one month of lockdown. Continue reading

முதல் தேசிய COVID ஆய்வு இலங்கையில் சமூக ஆய்வுகளுக்கான சவால்களை சுட்டிக்காட்டுவதோடு குழு நோய் எதிர்ப்பு சக்தி ஏன் செயல்படாது என்பதையும் காட்டுகிறது

உலகின் முக்கிய நாடுகளில் கோவிட் -19 நோய்த்தொற்றின் முதல் தேசிய கணக்கெடுப்பினை கண்டுபிடிப்புகளை கடந்த வாரம் (ஏப்ரல் 10), ஆஸ்திரியா வெளியிட்டது. தொற்றுநோய் கடுமையாக தாக்கியிருந்தாலும்,ஆஸ்திரியாவில் நூறில் ஒருவர் மட்டுமே தொற்றுநோயால் பாதிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளதாகத் தெரிகிறது. கோவிட்-19 வைரசிற்கு குழு நோய் எதிர்ப்பு சக்தியை உபாயமாக கொள்வது, எந்த ஒரு அறிவுடைய நாட்டிலும் சாத்தியாமான பதில் என்னும் கருத்தை தகர்த்தெரிகிறது. இலங்கை போன்ற நாடுகளில் சமூக பரவல் கணக்கெடுப்புகள் குறிப்பிடத்தக்க சவால்களை எதிர்கொள்ளுவன என்றும் அவர்கள் பரிந்துரைக்கின்றனர். Continue reading

ප්‍රථම ජාතික කොවිඩ් අධ්‍යයනය, ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ ප්‍රජා සමීක්ෂණ සඳහා ඇති අභියෝග පෙන්වා දෙන අතර, සමූහ ප්‍රතිශක්තිය (Herd Immunity) ක්‍රියාත්මක නොවන්නේ ඇයි දැයි පෙන්වා දෙයි

කොවිඩ්-19 ආසාදනය පිළිබඳව ලෝකයේ ප්‍රධාන රටක කරන ලද ප්‍රථම ජාතික සමීක්ෂණයේ ප්‍රතිඵල ඔස්ට්‍රියාව විසින් පසුගිය අප්‍රේල් 10 වන දින ප්‍රකාශයට පත් කරන ලදී. රට දරුණු වසංගතයකින් පෙළෙන නමුත්, ඔස්ට්‍රියානුවන් සියයකින් එක් අයෙකු පමණක් ආසාදනය වී ඇති බව පෙනේ. ඕනෑම බුද්ධිමත් රටක කොවිඩ්-19 සඳහා සුදුසුම උපායමාර්ගය සමූහ ප්‍රතිශක්තිය යන අදහස මෙම ප්‍රතිඵල වලින් බිඳ දමයි. ශ්‍රී ලංකාව වැනි රටවල ප්‍රජා ව්‍යාප්තිය පිළිබඳ සමීක්ෂණ පැවැත්වීම සැලකිය යුතු අභියෝගයන්ට මුහුණ දෙන බව ද ඔවුහු යෝජනා කරති. Continue reading

First national COVID study points to challenges for community surveys in Sri Lanka and shows why herd immunity will not work

Last week (10 April), Austria released findings from the first national survey of Covid-19 infection in any major country in the world. Despite the country suffering a severe epidemic, only one in a hundred Austrians appear to have been infected. The findings demolish the idea that a strategy of going for herd immunity is a viable response to Covid-19 in any sane country. They also suggest that conducting community prevalence surveys in countries like Sri Lanka will face significant challenges. Continue reading

எங்கள் விமான நிலையங்களைத் திறக்கவேண்டும் என்றால் பரிசோதனை திறனை விரிவுபடுத்த இப்போதே தொடங்க வேண்டும்

எதிர்காலத்தில் அனைத்து சர்வதேச வருகைகளையும் கோவிட் -19 வைரஸிர்க்காக, ஏன் பரிசோதித்து 14 நாட்களுக்கு தனிமைப்படுத்த வேண்டும் என்பதை நாங்கள் முன்னர் விளக்கினோம். இவ்வாறு செய்யக்கோரி GMOA ஒரு கடித்தத்துடன் இன்று ஜனாதிபதியை சந்தித்தனர். மார்ச் மாத துவக்கத்தில் நடந்ததின் அடிப்படையிலும் தற்போது நம்மிடமுள்ள விஞ்ஞானபூர்வமான தரவுகளின் அடிப்படையிலும் இந்த முயற்ச்சி சிறந்தது என ஆமோதிக்கிறோம். Continue reading

ගුවන් තොටුපල විවෘත කිරීම සඳහා පරීක්ෂණ ධාරිතාව පුලුල් කිරීම අප දැන්ම කල යුතුයි.

කොවිඩ්-19 වෛරසය සඳහා, සියලුම ජාත්‍යන්තර පැමිණිම් පරීක්ෂා කිරීම මෙන්ම ඔවුන් දින 14 ක් නිරෝධායනය කිරීමට අනාගතයේදී අපට අවශ්‍ය වන්නේ මන්දැයි අපි මෙයට කලින් පැහැදිලි කර ඇත්තෙමු. රජයේ වෛද්‍ය නිලධාරීන්ගේ සංගමය විසින් අද දින ලිපියක් මඟින් මෙය සිදුකරන ලෙස ජනාධිපතිවරයාගෙන් ඉල්ලා තිබේ. මේ වනවිට අප සතුව ඇති විද්‍යාත්මක සාක්ෂි සහ මාර්තු මුලදී සිදුවු දේ පිළිබඳ ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ අත්දැකීම් මත පදනම් වු වඩාත් තාර්කික විකල්පය ලෙස අපි මෙම ඇමතුම අනුමත කරමු. Continue reading

We need to start now to expand testing capacity to open our airports

We have previously explained why we will need in future to test all international arrivals for Covid-19 virus, as well as quarantining them for 14 days. 

The GMOA has called on the President to do this in a letter today. We endorse this call as the most rational option based on the scientific evidence we have right now and the experience in Sri Lanka of what happened in early March. Continue reading

நீக்குதலை இலக்காக ஏற்றுக்கொண்ட முதல் ஆசியரல்லாத, மேற்கத்திய நாடாக நியூசிலாந்து திகழ்கிறது

நோய்பெருக்கில் இருந்து வெளியே வருவதற்கு எங்களுக்கும் இருக்கும் பாதைகள் குறித்த கட்டுரையை இன்னும் எழுதிக்கொண்டிடுப்பதால் இதை முன்னதாகவே பகிர்ந்து கொள்கிறேன்.

இரண்டு தசாப்தங்களுக்கு முன்னர் SARS-னால் பாதிக்கப்பட்ட கிழக்கு ஆசிய நாடுகளே தற்போதைய சூழலில், இதுவரை மிகவும் வெற்றிகண்டுள்ளன. இதுவே அவர்களை பின்பற்றுவதில் ஒரு முட்டுக்கட்டையாக எங்கள் மனதில் உருவாகியுள்ளது என்று நினைக்கிறேன். இது அவர்களுடன் எங்களுக்கு பல கலாச்சார ஒற்றுமைகள் இருந்தபோதும், அவர்களில் சிலரின் சுகாதார சேவைகள் அமைந்திருக்கும் விதம் நம்மை ஒத்து இருந்த போதும் உள்ளது.

நியூசிலாந்து இப்போது நோய்பெருக்கை குறைப்பதை விட நேரடியாக நீக்குவதை தேர்ந்தெடுத்துள்ளது. இது அவ்வாறு செய்த முதல் மற்றும் ஒரே ஆசியரல்லாத, மேற்கத்திய நாடு ஆகும். Continue reading

තුරන් කිරීම ඉලක්කය ලෙස පිළිගත් පළමු ආසියානු නොවන, බටහිර රට බවට නවසීලන්තය පත්වේ

කොවිඩ් පාලනයේදී මේ දක්වා වඩාත්ම සාර්ථක රටවල් වන්නේ දශක දෙකකට පෙර සාර්ස් වසංගතයට මුහුණ පෑ නැගෙන්හිර ආසියානු රටවල්ය. මා හිතන්නේ, මෙය අනුගමනය කිරීමේදී අපට මානසික බාධකයක් ඇති කර තිබේ. මෙය බොහෝවිට එම රටවල් හා සංස්කෘතික සමානකම් බෙදා ගැනීමත්, රටවල් එකක් දෙකක් ඔවුන්ගේ සෞඛ්‍ය පද්ධති සංවිධානය කර ඇති ආකාරය අපට බොහෝ දුරට සමානකම් දැක්වීමත් තිබියදීය. 

නවසීලන්තය දැන් පැහැදිලිවම, අවම කිරීමට වඩා තුරන් කිරීම ඉලක්කය ලෙස තෝරා ගෙන ඇත. එසේ කල, පළමු හා එකම ආසියානු නොවන බටහිර රට ඔවුන්ය. Continue reading

New Zealand becomes the first non-Asian, Western country to adopt Elimination as the Goal

I share this in advance of a proper article on our exit paths that I haven’t had time to finish.

The most successful countries so far have been the East Asian countries which experienced SARS two decades ago. I think this has created a mental block for us in copying them. This is despite them sharing many cultural similarities, and despite the fact that one or two of them are the most similar to us in terms of how they organize their health systems.

New Zealand has now explicitly chosen the goal of Elimination over Mitigation. They are the first and only non-Asian, Western country to have done so. Continue reading