I recently tweeted that most people in Sydney in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. don’t wear masks and they seem to be doing just fine—zero cases of local transmission in past two weeks despite 200,000 tests. One twitter user was bothered by my nonchalance and asked not unreasonably for links to the evidence … Continue reading
Monthly Archives: November 2020
I am also tweeting…
I have avoided joining Twitter and most social media until now. But it’s a useful channel to share thoughts which I don’t have time to write properly in this blog, and it does reach a wider and different audience. I will tweet blog posts in future if I think they deserve a wider audience, but the more substantive thoughts will remain here. Link here to my twitter account. Continue reading
கோவிட் -19 வைரஸ் உத்தியோகபூர்வ தரவுகளில் கூறப்படுவதை விட அதிவேகமாக பரவி கொண்டிருக்க கூடும்.
தொற்று பரவும் வேகம் பற்றி புரிந்துகொள்ள நம்மிடம் உள்ள ஒரே தரவு/இலக்கு தொற்றியல் பிரிவு தினமும் வெளியிடும் தொற்றாளரின் எண்ணிக்கை. இதைவிட உகந்த இலக்கு effective reproduction number என்று குறிப்பிடப்படும் இனப்பெருக்க எண்ணின்(Reff), குறு(ங்) கால அறிக்கை. தொற்று நோயியல் பிரிவு இதை வெளியிடுவதில்லை. இத்தரவு அவர்கள் வழக்கமாக கணிக்கும் ஒன்றா என்பதும் நமக்குத் தெரியாது. அப்படி கணித்தால் தகவல் அறியும் உரிமையின்(RTI ) சட்டத்தின் சாரத்தின்படி அதனை அவர்கள் வெளியிட்டால் நன்றாக இருக்கும்.
நம்மிடம் தற்போது உள்ள தரவு ஆறுதல் தரும் விதத்தில் இல்லை. Continue reading
නිල දත්ත වලින් පිලිඹිබු වනවාට වඩා වේගයෙන් කොවිඩ්-19 වෛරසය පැතිර යමින් පැවතිය හැකිය.
වෛරසය පැතිරීම තක්සේරු කිරීම සඳහා අප දත්ත ලබා ගන්නේ වසංගත රෝග විද්යා ඒකකයේ දෛනික සිද්ධි වාර්තා වලින්ය . වඩා හොඳ මිනුමක් වනුයේ, පලදායී ප්රජනන අංකය (Reff) හා අදාල දැනට පවතින නිරන්තරයෙන් යාවත්කාලීන කරන ලද හෝ “දැන් සකස් කර ඇති” තක්සේරුගත දත්තයන් ය. නමුත් වසංගත රෝග විද්යා ඒකකය මෙය ප්රකාශයට පත් නොකරන අතර ඔවුන් එය නිතිපතා තක්සේරු කරන්නේ දැයි මට අදහසක් නැත. ඔවුන් එසේ කරන්නේ නම්, තොරතුරු දැනගැනීමේ අයිතිවාසිකම යටතේ එය බෙදා ගැනීමට RTI නීති සම්පාදන විසින් ඔවුන්ව දිරිමත් කළ යුතුය.
අප සතුව ඇති දත්ත සහතික කල හැකි තත්වයක නොපවතී.
Why did Jathika Chintanaya not save us from Western COVID thinking by taking PCR testing seriously?
As we as a nation and the government grope for answers on how to best tackle our second COVID-19 wave, there is no global consensus amongst experts or even amongst countries as to what are the most effective interventions or even what the goal is. Continue reading
The virus may be spreading much faster than official data suggest
The daily case reports from the Epidemiology Unit are the only data we have to assess the spread of the virus. A better measure would be a regularly updated or “now-casted” estimate of the current effective reproduction number (Reff), but the Epidemiology Unit does not publish this, and I have no idea if they estimate it on a regular basis. If they do, then maybe the spirit of the RTI legislation should encourage them to share it.
The data we do have are not reassuring. Continue reading
பி.சி.ஆர் பரிசோதனை திறன் குறித்து ஏப்ரல் மாதத்தில் எங்கள் ஐ.எச்.பி வெளியிட்ட மதிப்பீடுகள் இப்பொழுது பொருந்தாது – நம் தேவை கூடிவிட்டது
சமீபத்தில் பலரும் ஏப்ரல் மாத துவக்கத்தில். IHP-யில் நாங்கள் வெளியிட்ட பி.சி.ஆர் பரிசோதனை திறன் குறித்த மதிப்பீடுகளை பல முறை பார்த்துள்ளனர். இந்த மதிப்பீட்டை தொடர்ந்து புதுபிப்பதற்கு தேவையான ஆதாரம் IHP-க்கு இன்னும் கிடைக்கவில்லை, எனினும் இந்த மதிப்பீடுகளை நீங்கள் உபயோகிப்பவரானால் இது இப்பொழுது செல்லாது என்பதை உங்கள் கவனத்திற்கு கொண்டுவரவே இந்த வெளியீடு.
ஏப்ரல் மாதத்தில் ஒரு நாளில் சராசரியாக 6,000 பி.சி.ஆர் பரிசோதனைகள் செய்யப்பட வேண்டும் என வும், தேசிய பி.சி.ஆர் பரிசோதனை திறன் ஒரு நாளைக்கு 9,000 பரிசோதனைகளாக இருக்க வேண்டும் என்றும் மதிப்பிட்டிருந்தோம். எமது தற்போதைய தேவை அநேகமாக நாள் ஒன்றுக்கு 40 – 50,000 பரிசோதனைகளாக இருக்க வேண்டும்.
Continue reading
Interview with EconomyNext (10 Nov 2020)
EconomyNext emailed me about the last post revising upwards our estimates of required PCR testing capacity. What I told them in this interview here:
https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-needs-to-ramp-up-daily-pcr-testing-to-40-50000-a-day-dr-rannan-eliya-75755/
PCR පරීක්ෂණ ධාරිතාව පිළිබඳව සෞඛ්ය ප්රතිපත්ති ආයතනය විසින් අප්රේල් මාසයේදී කරන ලද ඇස්තමේන්තු යල් පැන තිබේ – අපට තවත් වැඩි පරික්ෂණ ධාරිතාවක් අවශ්ය වේ.
මා විසින් අප්රේල් මස මුලදී පළ කළ COVID පරීක්ෂණ ධාරිතාව පිළිබඳ IHP විසින් සිදුකල ඇස්තමේන්තු අගයන් දෙස, පසුගිය සති කිහිපය තුළ දී බොහෝ දෙනෙක් බලා තිබුණි. එම ඇස්තමේන්තු අගයන් නැවත සංශෝධනය කිරිමට අප හට අවශ්ය සම්පත්* නොමැති නමුත්, ඔබ අපේ අප්රේල් ඇස්තමේන්තු භාවිතා කරන්නේ නම්, ඒවා තවදුරටත් වලංගු නොවන බවට මෙයින් ඔබව දැනුවත් කරමු.
අප්රේල් මාසයේ දී අපි ඇස්තමේන්තු කළේ සාමන්ය දෛනික PCR පරීක්ෂණ දිනකට 6,000 ක් විය යුතු අතර ජාතික PCR ධාරිතාව දිනකට පරීක්ෂණ 9,000 ක් විය යුතු බවයි. නමුත්, දැන් අපගේ දෛනික පරීක්ෂණ අවශ්යතාවය බොහෝ විට දිනකට පරීක්ෂණ 40-50,000 අතර වේ.
Our IHP estimates in April of required PCR testing capacity are out of date – We need much more
In the past few weeks, a lot of people have been looking at the IHP estimates of required PCR testing capacity that I posted back in early April. We have not had the resources to revise these yet,* but if you are using our April estimates, this is to alert you that they are no longer valid.
In April we estimated that average daily PCR testing should be 6,000 tests/day, and that national PCR capacity should be 9,000 tests/day. Our daily testing need right now is probably in the range of 40-50,000 tests/day. Continue reading