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    A Population Projection of Sri Lanka for the New Millenium 2001-2101: Trends and Implications

    IHP book publication

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    W. Indralal De Silva
    1 Jun 2007 | ISBN 978-955-1707-00-2| 104 pages

    Abstract: Sri Lanka's ageing population requires regular updating of her demographic data and projections. This publication presents a new set of demographic projections prepared by Prof. Indralal de Silva of Colombo University, which take into account the detailed data produced by the 2001 National Population Census, the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey, and other mortality and migration data collected by the government during 2001-2004. For the first time, they also offer a forecast of future population trajectories over a 100 year time horizon, which is increasingly required for planning such policies and programmes as pensions. The life tables included in the book also are the first updated life tables published for Sri Lanka in more than a decade, and will be a timely and useful resource for all demographers and policy analysts.

    Key conclusions of this publication are that Sri Lanka's population will peak at 21.9 million in 2031 from its 19.7 million size in 2006, and will then begin to decline unless fertility or immigration rates substantially increase. At that point, Sri Lanka will have one of the oldest populations in the developing world, and that elderly population will be predominantly female, as the projections anticipate a continuing large gap between female and male life expectancy.




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