The surge in cases due to spread between residents of Colombo under curfew should not surprise the health authorities – it was entirely predictable. For several weeks, we have failed to take adequate action to build on our initial success, in particular to expand testing. Whilst we remain in a select group of countries with minimal community transmission, we are increasingly dropping behind in our response. This is making it more difficult to lift the lockdowns, it will continue to frustrate the government’s economic and political goals of restarting the economy and holding elections, and it is putting to waste the enormous sacrifices that the public have made during one month of lockdown. Continue reading
Author Archives: Ravi Rannan-Eliya
First national COVID study points to challenges for community surveys in Sri Lanka and shows why herd immunity will not work
Last week (10 April), Austria released findings from the first national survey of Covid-19 infection in any major country in the world. Despite the country suffering a severe epidemic, only one in a hundred Austrians appear to have been infected. The findings demolish the idea that a strategy of going for herd immunity is a viable response to Covid-19 in any sane country. They also suggest that conducting community prevalence surveys in countries like Sri Lanka will face significant challenges. Continue reading
We need to start now to expand testing capacity to open our airports
We have previously explained why we will need in future to test all international arrivals for Covid-19 virus, as well as quarantining them for 14 days.
The GMOA has called on the President to do this in a letter today. We endorse this call as the most rational option based on the scientific evidence we have right now and the experience in Sri Lanka of what happened in early March. Continue reading
New Zealand becomes the first non-Asian, Western country to adopt Elimination as the Goal
I share this in advance of a proper article on our exit paths that I haven’t had time to finish.
The most successful countries so far have been the East Asian countries which experienced SARS two decades ago. I think this has created a mental block for us in copying them. This is despite them sharing many cultural similarities, and despite the fact that one or two of them are the most similar to us in terms of how they organize their health systems.
New Zealand has now explicitly chosen the goal of Elimination over Mitigation. They are the first and only non-Asian, Western country to have done so. Continue reading
How much COVID testing do we need: (3) Who do we need to test?
We have estimated that Sri Lanka needs to be doing 2,000–6,000 RT-PCR tests a day. We have since learnt that the MOH Epidemiology Unit estimates we need to be doing 5,000 tests a day. This is essentially the same number because our estimates include testing of airport arrivals, and the airport remains closed. We provide here additional explanation of why we need to test specific groups. We will include this in a revised version of the report. In providing this, we emphasize two points. Continue reading
How much COVID testing do we need: (2) Technical Estimates
Sri Lanka needs to increase testing of COVID from ~250 to at least 2,000 RT-PCR tests a day. There is a large backlog in testing of contacts of known COVID cases that needs to be rapidly dealt with. We also need to put in place testing capacity that will allow the country and economy to get back to some level of normality during the next 12 months.
We report target levels for daily testing, as well as how much capacity we need overall. Our analysis does not estimate requirements for antibody (IgG/IgM) testing, as this will be additional and is not appropriate as the first line of testing in this war against COVID-19. The most urgent priority for the country is to expand RT-PCR testing. Our initial estimates and analysis are given in our report (click to download) and the key numbers are summarized below. Continue reading
How much COVID testing do we need: (1) Introduction
9th November 2020 – IMPORTANT UPDATE
These estimates that we prepared in April 2020 were never acted on, so we now need much higher levels of testing capacity. Please see this explanation. We will do our best to produce updated estimates when we can.
The most urgent need today is for Sri Lanka to increase the rate of testing.The current rate of testing—around 250 tests a day—is completely inadequate. It is far less than other developing countries like Bhutan, Maldives and Viet Nam, which have been able to keep the virus at a low level, and far less than the countries we should be copying like Singapore. Many people are asking us how much we need to test. I am going to post here details of IHP’s initial estimates of the testing capacity that Sri Lanka needs by end of April. Before doing that, a few words. Continue reading
Thank you Brandix for true leadership!
Brandix CEO Ashroff Omar just told his staff that Brandix is making big cuts in executive pay in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Brandix is suspending Mr Omar’s own pay as CEO and that of all Board members for six months, and cutting the pay of all managers by 5 to 60%. Continue reading
COVID-19 crisis will not be over soon – We need to prepare for a long slog
The current lock-down – not only here but affecting two billion people around the world – should make it clear to everyone how serious COVID-19 is. What many still do not appreciate is that closing our ports and even a one month lockdown will not make the problem go away.
Let me be clear first about the good news – we appear on track to control the current surge in cases. So far almost all cases are linked to Sri Lankans returning from foreign travel, and there is little transmission between people in Sri Lanka.
When we get through this lockdown, life will not return to normal for at least the next 12 months. Our political leaders need to explain this, to prepare everyone for a long slog. To adapt the words of Winston Churchill at a similar moment: Defeating the current surge would not be the end. It would not even be the beginning of the end. But it might be, perhaps, the end of the beginning. In the absence of any effort to trust the public with what the long term strategy is, I provide an expert assessment of prospects. Continue reading
தற்போதைய MOH மூலோபாயத்தை விட செலவு பயன் பகுப்பாய்வு அதிக சோதனையை ஆதரிக்கிறது
பணிநிறுத்தம் (தேசிய ஊரடங்கு உத்தரவு, வீட்டிலிருந்து வேலை செய்தல், பள்ளி மூடல்) மற்றும் வெளிநாட்டு வருகையாளர்களின் தொடர்புகளை MOH தேடுதல் ஆகியவை நோயின் தற்போதைய வெடிப்பைக் கட்டுப்படுத்துவதில் உதவும். மேலும் பத்து நாட்களுக்குள் புதிய நோய்தொற்றுகளை பூஜ்ஜியத்திற்குக் கொண்டு வரக்கூடும். சமீபத்திய தரவுகளில் அது நடப்பதற்கான அறிகுறிகள் உள்ளன.
வைரஸின் பரவலைத் தடுக்க MOH-இன் மூலோபாயம் செயல்படும், ஆனால் அது போதுமானதும் இல்லை அதைத் தக்கவைக்கவும் முடியாது. தற்போது பொருளாதாரம் இயங்க முடியா நிலை, வேலையின்மை அதிகரிக்கும், வணிகங்கள் நொடித்துவிடும், வாழ்க்கைத் தரம் வீழ்ச்சியடையும், அரசாங்கத்திற்கு வருவாய் இராது. அன்றாட வாழ்க்கையை மீண்டும் துவங்கவும் பொருளாதாரம் முன்னேறவும் வணிகங்களையும் பள்ளிகளையும் திறக்க நாம் அனுமதிக்க வேண்டும்.
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